Slow-slip events (SSEs) are common at subduction zone faults where large mega earthquakes occur. We report here that one of the best-recorded moderate size continental earthquake, the 2009 April 6 moment magnitude (Mw) 6.3 L’Aquila (Italy) earthquake, was preceded by a 5.9 Mw SSE that originated from the decollement beneath the reactivated normal faulting system. The SSE is identified from a rigorous analysis of continuous GPS stations and occurred on the 12 February and lasted for almost two weeks. It coincided with a burst in the foreshock activity with small repeating earthquakes migrating towards the main-shock hypocentre as well as with a change in the elastic properties of rocks in the fault region. The SSE has caused substantial stress loading at seismogenic depths where the magnitude 4.0 foreshock and Mw 6.3 main shock nucleated. This stress loading is also spatially correlated with the lateral extent of the aftershock sequence.

The Apennines are a tectonically active belt that has experienced significant earthquakes (Mw 6). The largest events primarily occurred along the chain axis, where a complex system of normal faults accommodates 2–3 mm/yr of SW-NE oriented extension, as precisely measured by a dense Global Navigation Satellite System network. Geodetic strain rates are now frequently used in earthquake hazard models; however, the impact of using such estimates, computed through different methods, for seismic hazard assessments may be difficult to evaluate. This study explores the relationship between geodetic strain rates and seismicity rates in the Apennines using three distinct horizontal strain rate maps and an instrumental seismicity catalog. We find that the principal directions of geodetic strain rate are kinematically consistent with those of strain release. We estimate a spatially heterogeneous seismogenic thickness using the distribution of earthquake depths, and we isolate likely independent seismicity using three different declustering methods. We observe a correlation between independent seismicity rates and the magnitude of strain rate, which can be represented by either a linear or, more accurately, by a power-law relationship. The variability in the strain-seismicity relationship depends on the combination of independent seismic catalogs and strain rate maps. This relationship is primarily influenced by the declustering technique more than the choice of the strain rate map and, in particular, by the number of aftershocks excluded during declustering. Seismicity models derived from these combinations were used to estimate and compare the seismic moment release rate with the tectonic moment rate estimated from strain rate maps and seismogenic thickness. Findings indicate that the tectonic moment rate exceeds the seismic moment release rate. We highlight uncertainties and potential causes, one of which could be a possible aseismic release of part of the moment rate.

Our ability to estimate surface deformation rates in the Central Mediterranean has considerably enhanced in the last decade thanks to the growth of continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) networks. Focusing on the Apennine/Alpine seismogenic belt, this area offers the opportunity to test the use of geodetic strain rates for constraining active tectonic processes and for seismic hazard assessments. Given the importance of geodetic strain rate models in modern hazard estimation approaches, however, one has to consider that different approaches can provide significantly different strain rate maps. Despite the increasing availability of GNSS velocity data, in fact, strain rate models can significantly differ, because of the spatial heterogeneity of GNSS stations locations and inherent strategies in computing strain rates. Using a dense GNSS velocity dataset, this study examines three methods for estimating horizontal strain rates, described in the recent literature and selected to represent approaches of increasing mathematical complexity. Advantages, drawbacks and optimal settings of each method are discussed. The main result is an ensemble of strain rate models that enable the evaluation of epistemic uncertainties in seismicity rates models constrained by geodetic velocities.

The Apennines are a tectonically active belt that has experienced significant earthquakes (Mw6). The largest events primarily occurred along the chain axis, where a complex system of normal faults accommodates 2–3 mm/yr of SW-NE oriented extension, as precisely measured by a dense Global Navigation Satellite System network. Geodetic strain rates are now frequently used in earthquake hazard models; however, the impact of using such estimates, computed through different methods, for seismic hazard assessments may be difficult to evaluate. This study explores the relationship between geodetic strain rates and seismicity rates in the Apennines using three distinct horizontal strain rate maps and an instrumental seismicity catalog. We find that the principal directions of geodetic strain rate are kinematically consistent with those of strain release. We estimate a spatially heterogeneous seismogenic thickness using the distribution of earthquake depths, and we isolate likely independent seismicity using three different declustering methods. We observe a correlation between independent seismicity rates and the magnitude of strain rate, which can be represented by either a linear or, more accurately, by a power-law relationship. The variability in the strain-seismicity relationship depends on the combination of independent seismic catalogs and strain rate maps. This relationship is primarily influenced by the declustering technique more than the choice of the strain rate map and, in particular, by the number of aftershocks excluded during declustering. Seismicity models derived from these combinations were used to estimate and compare the seismic moment release rate with the tectonic moment rate estimated from strain rate maps and seismogenic thickness. Findings indicate that the tectonic moment rate exceeds the seismic moment release rate. We highlight uncertainties and potential causes, one of which could be a possible aseismic release of part of the moment rate.

Extensional faults in Southern Calabria (Italy) have been widely studied for their capability of generating high magnitude earthquakes (Mw 7–7.2). An example is the historical seismic sequence occurred in 1783, which caused numerous fatalities near the villages located along the longest faults of this region: the Cittanova and the Serre faults. In this work, we estimated the seismic potential of these two faults by a kinematic block modelling approach using GNSS data of both campaign points and permanent stations. Our results indicate that both faults are accommodating the recognized extensional velocity gradient (∼ 1 mm yr−1 ) by long-term slip rates (∼ 2 mm yr−1 ). To estimate the back slip distribution and the interseismic coupling degree of the Cittanova and Serre faults, we discretized these by a triangular dislocation elements mesh. This approach has allowed us to distinguish the fault areas where elastic seismic rupture is more likely to happen from those affected by aseismic creeping behaviour. The obtained results show that the highest values of coupling are located near the shallow portion of the fault planes and near the southern tip of the Cittanova fault. We therefore estimated a set of possible rupture scenarios finding that the Southern Calabria domain is accumulating an interseismic moment rate at most equal to 2.16 × 1016 Nm yr−1 , the equivalent of an earthquake of Mw 4.86 for each year.

Field surveys focused on detailed mapping and measurements of coseismic surface ruptures along the causative fault of the 6 February 2023, Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş earthquake. The aim was filling gaps in the previously available surface-faulting trace, validating the accuracy of data obtained from remote sensing, refining fault offset estimates, and gaining a deeper understanding of both the local and overall patterns of the main rupture strands. Measurements and observations confirm dominating sinistral strike-slip movement. An integrated and comprehensive slip distribution curve shows peaks reaching over 700 cm, highlighting the near-fault expressing up to 70% of the deep net offset. In general, the slip distribution curve shows a strong correlation with the larger north-eastern deformation of the geodetic far field dislocation field and major deep slip patches. The overall rupture trace is generally straight and narrow with significant geometric complexities at a local scale. This results in transtensional and transpressional secondary structures, as multi-strand positive and negative tectonic flowers, hosting different patterns of the mole-tracks at the outcrop scale. The comprehensive and detailed field survey allowed characterizing the structural framework and geometric complexity of the surface faulting, ensuring accurate offset measurements and the reliable interpretation of both morphological and geometric features.

From the paleoseismological and seismotectonic point of view, the intermountain basins of the Central Apennines of Italy are one of the most studied areas worldwide. Within this context, however, the Rieti Basin, bounded at its sides by active normal faults and with its peculiar rhombohedral shape, is a relatively overlooked area, and its most recent paleoseismological studies date back to the 90s. This is a key area both for completing the paleoseismological history of this sector of the chain and for understanding how the present-day extensional regime is accommodated through time by the faults bounding the basin. With this aim in mind, we excavated 17 paleoseismological trenches along the normal faults bordering the Rieti Basin (Central Apennines, Italy) and unveiled at least 6 paleoearthquakes that ruptured the faults during the last ca. 20 kyr. Our analysis of the paleoearthquake succession along the basin-bounding faults suggests that a spatial pattern is followed during sequences of rupturing events, with a maximum credible earthquake of Mw 6.5, consistently within this sector of the Central Apennines.